Các nghiên cứu sẽ đọc:
1. Financial deepening and economic growth in Gulf Cooperation Council countries:
HAMDI, Helmi and SBIA, Rashid and TAS, Bedri (2012): Financial deepening and economic growth in Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
The aim of this paper is to investigate the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in GCC countries for the period 1980-2010. To this end we use a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework by including investment as an additional variable to the finance and growth nexus. Our empirical analysis is based on a modified version of the Granger non-causality test by applying the Toda and Yamamoto procedure. The overall empirical results reveal that financial development contributes significantly to economic growth in the GCC context. Our results could be of great interest for policymakers since the financial sector could play a crucial role in lowering the dependence of the governments to oil revenues and could contribute significantly to spur economic growth.
2. Panel analysis of CO2 emissions, GDP, energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization for MENA countries
Farhani, Sahbi and Shahbaz, Muhammad and AROURI, Mohamed El Hedi (2013): Panel analysis of CO2 emissions, GDP, energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization for MENA countries.
This paper empirically parallels two approaches: The first one follows the studies of Halicioglu (2009), Jalil and Mahmud (2009), and Jayanthakumaran et al. (2012) which attempt to introduce energy consumption and trade into the environmental function (related carbon dioxide ‘CO2’ emissions to Gross Domestic Product ‘GDP’); whereas the second approach extends the single work of Hossain (2011) which attempts to introduce urbanization as a means to circumvent omitted variable bias. For 11 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries over the period 1980-2009, the empirical results appear to be relevant in light of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) literature based on the cointegrated and causal relationship. Policy implications indicate that: i) more energy use, higher GDP and greater trade openness tend to cause more CO2 emissions; ii) the inclusion of urbanization in the environmental function improves the final results and positively affects the pollution level; and iii) MENA countries should search the best policy which can stabilize the rise of growth GDP and trade openness, and which can also control the continuous increase in the use of energy.
Asghar, Zahid and Muhammad, Ahmed (2013): Socio-economic Determinants of Household Food Insecurity in Pakistan.
This study investigates the determinants of food insecurity for both general and farmer households. It is based on Pakistan Social and Living standard Measurement (PSLM) 2007-08 survey conducted by the Federal Bureau of Statistics, Pakistan. After having descriptive analysis of the important determinants of food insecurity, we have used logit model to find the probability for being household secure or insecure. The model is initially fitted with 16 (for general) and 19 (for farmer households) variables, selected from factors identified by previous researchers that affect food insecurity. Twelve out of 19 variables for farmer households are found to be significant such as household size, household size square, household income, number of rooms, dependency ratio, electricity connection, irrigation facility, age and age square of household head. To our surprise female education variable is insignificant for general household model. The results obtained are further analyzed to compute partial effects on continuous variables and change in the probabilities on discrete variables for the significant factors in the logistic models. Household size, education of household head, annual income and agricultural income are some of the most important factors influencing the household’s food insecurity status.
Chang, Tai Hsieh and Peter, J- Klenow (2007): Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in China and India. Published in: The Quaterly Journal Of Economics , Vol. 1, No. 1 (30. June 2007): pp. 1403-1447.
Resource misallocation can lower aggregate total factor productivity (TFP).We use microdata on manufacturing establishments to quantify the potential extent of misallocation in China and India versus the United States. We measure sizable gaps in marginal products of labor and capital across plants within narrowly defined industries in China and India compared with the United States. When capital and labor are hypothetically reallocated to equalize marginal products to the extent observed in the United States, we calculate manufacturing TFP gains of 30%–50% in China and 40%–60% in India.
Cruz , Christopher John and Mapa, Dennis (2013): An Early Warning System for Inflation in the Philippines Using Markov-Switching and Logistic Regression Models.
With the adoption of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) of the Inflation Targeting (IT) framework in 2002, average inflation went down in the past decade from historical average. However, the BSP’s inflation targets were breached several times since 2002. Against this backdrop, this paper develops an early warning system (EWS) model for predicting the occurrence of high inflation in the Philippines. Episodes of high and low inflation were identified using Markov-switching models. Using the outcomes of regime classification, logistic regression models are then estimated with the objective of quantifying the possibility of the occurrence of high inflation episodes. Empirical results show that the proposed EWS model has some potential as a complementary tool in the BSP’s monetary policy formulation based on the in-sample and out-of sample forecasting performance.
Eita, Joel Hinaunye and Mbazima, Daisy (2008): The Causal Relationship Between Government Revenue and Expenditure in Namibia.
The relationship between government revenue and government expenditure is important, given its relevance for policy especially with respect to the budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government revenue and government expenditure in Namibia. It investigates the causal relationship between government revenue and government expenditure using Granger causality test through cointegrated vector autoregression (VAR) methods for the period the period 1977 to 2007. The paper tests whether government revenue causes government expenditure or whether the causality runs from government expenditure to government revenue, and if there is bi-directional causality. The results show that there is unidirectional causality from government revenue to government expenditure. This suggests unsustainable fiscal imbalances (deficit) can be mitigated by policies that stimulate government revenue.
Haq, Rashida (1991): Estimating demand and supply of edible oil in Pakistan. Published in: Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Social Sciences , Vol. 6 & 7, No. 1 & 2 (1993): pp. 13-24.
This paper examines the demand for edible oil in Pakistan and a dynamic supply response model to show price responsiveness by sunflower oilseed farmers. The demand for edible oil is estimated by using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique. It has been found that an increase in the consumption of edible oil is highly affected by urbanization, increase in per capita income, relative high price of its substitutes and the rapid growth of the population. In order to estimate supply response model of oilseed (sunflower), Nerlovian partial adjustment model has been used. The dynamic supply response showed a positive price responsiveness by sunflower oilseed farmers, which is consistent with a priori expectation.
Shahbaz, Muhammad and Abosedra, Salah and Sbia, Rashid (2013): Energy Consumption, Financial Development and Growth: Evidence from Cointegration with unknown Structural breaks in Lebanon.
This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between financial development, energy consumption and economic growth in Lebanon over the period 1993M1-2010M12.Our findings confirm the existence of cointegration among the variables. The results indicate that financial development and energy consumption, contribute to economic growth in Lebanon. The impact of energy consumption on economic growth is positive showing the significance of energy as a main stimulant of economic growth. Financial development is also found to play a vital role in enhancing economic growth. Economic growth and financial development also add in energy consumption. The study, therefore, recommends that in short run, policy makers should put more emphasis in developing strategies that would result in achieving higher mobilization of savings in order to boost Lebanese investors’ confidence and to also attract more foreign investment in Lebanon. Furthermore, desired financial policy to encounter the rising demand for energy by enhancing the process of capitalization of the energy sector is also very desirable. Our results further cautions of the use of policy tools geared towards restricting energy consumption in short run, something that is called for as part of national energy policy, as these may result in lower economic growth. Such conservation policies should be taken gradually and carefully as to not negatively impact the growth of the economy. However, in long run, the Lebanese government should shift its focus towards achieving higher economic growth, in order to boost its financial development and to sustain a steady flow of needed energy. In this regards, policymakers should put emphasis on the development of domestic energy resources to protect the country from any undesirable external energy shock given its extensive dependence on energy imports.
